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Ironically, even though we are now going through another cycle of economic recessions, where the growth in most industries are starting to slow down but there are still some lucky jobseekers out there who are securing job offers. Just recently I received a resignation from one of my employees who is leaving manufacturing for a job in sales & services.

First of all congratulation to all these lucky jobseekers and I’m sure they are pleased with their job offer. Even though I’m glad to see there are industries seeing some light at the end of the tunnel hence they require human resources to support their industry but I’m still sceptical on their job security as a newcomer.

Let me start by sharing these following facts based on the economic data collected in the US. (These data were taken from AP -Associated Press)

• The December Purchasing Manager’s Index for manufacturing was down nearly five percent to 32.4 (anything below 50 for these indexes represent contraction, while numbers above 50 show expansion). This marks the fifth consecutive month of decline, and, according to the Institute of Supply Management who publishes the report, the economy has contracted for the third consecutive months.

• Employment levels were down 4.3 percent, which is obviously negative, but the rate of decrease has slowed, so the bottom from which to rebound might be closer than some projections. Also reported that while the number of individuals collecting unemployment benefits is at its highest level since 1982, the number of recently laid-off workers signing up for the unemployment benefits fell sharply in the final week of 2008. Latest recorded in December 2008, the employment rate increased to 7.2%, the highest in the past 16 years.

• After nudging slightly over $50/barrel, oil prices sit at $48.58 as of press time. This is still up over $5 from three weeks ago. As you could imagine, this has impacted prices at the pump. Although still comfortably under $2/gallon, average regular unleaded gas in the U.S. sits at $1.71, up 10 cents from a week ago.

Locally in Malaysia, in the Smart Investor (Malaysian edition) magazine – January 2009, I found the following:

      ·     The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research or MIER has

           forecast the Malaysian unemployment level to hit 4.5% in 2009

           up from 3.5% in 2008. This would be the highest level in a

           decade.

      ·     Malaysian GDP in the 3^rd quarter of 2008 is 4.7% and it was

   projected to close in between 3.5% to 4.5% in the final quarter

   of 2008. Malaysian economy will begin contracting after Q4’08

   where 2009 GDP projection is currently between 1.1% to 0%.

      ·    Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) is at 838.28 points in

  December 2008, slightly above the 4 ½ year low of 801.27

  points. Projected to go below 800 points if the economy gets

  worst in 2009.

With the above data in mind, overall in 2009 will be a bad year financially for many of us including giant companies such as Nokia, Sony, Toyota and many more. Currently many companies are taking precaution or unavoidable actions to cushion the impact of 2009 economic recession. Some are taken actions to freeze hiring and also annual salary increment. Others are also forcing their employee for compulsory time off or unpaid leave, while the some are resorting towards voluntary or force retrenchment. Worst, there are some companies such as Nortel, a Canadian giant telecom & networking company has filled a Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Believe me or not, there is a risk of accepting a job offer during economic instability. As a newcomer, the tendency for you to loss your job will be relative higher compared to the old timer in terms of the retrenchment cost (Last In, First Out – LIFO). Except if you have a critical skill that is important for the company to leverage from, then LIFO might not work on you.

In my coming article, I’ll be sharing on how to mitigate the risk of losing your job as a newcomer.

Till then, if you have your own experience to share as a newcomer, feel free to drop your comments or share this article with your friends and family.

Thanks

Regards

Yusoff